Myanmar sheds that hermit image

After decades of isolation, Myanmar is being brought back into the limelight by its military rulers led by President Thein Sein.

MYANMAR and Malaysia. It's highly unusual for the two countries to be mentioned in the same breath – all the more so given Myanmar's long-standing status as a "pariah" state.

However, with the recent hotly-debated Peaceful Assembly Bill, it would appear that we Malaysians should be checking more closely with what's going on in Myanmar.

Consider Tuesday's closing ceremony of the SEA Games in Palembang and the extraordinary phrase emblazoned across the stadium: "See you in Myanmar."

President Thein Sein has been cautiously testing the waters, releasing political prisoners, relaxing media coverage and allowing veteran politician Aung San Suu Kyi increased freedom of movement.

Moreover, last week's summit in Bali resulted in the once hermit-like state being granted the chairmanship of the increasingly influential Asean grouping in 2014.

What's more is that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be visiting in December – the highest-ranking American official to do so in decades.

All these would have been unthinkable back in 2007, when the military regime's vicious crackdown on the Buddhist monk-led "Saffron Revolution" all but confirmed Myanmar's pariah status.

At the same time, Myanmar's new Peaceful Gathering and Procession Bill somewhat loosens restrictions on public meetings.

Thein Sein has been intervening more dramatically, halting an unpopular Chinese-funded dam in Myitsone last September after local protests.

Could this be the signs of a responsive government?

The generals have also made overtures to end Myanmar's decade-old civil war with the country's ethnic groups, like the Karen, Shan and Wa.

What gives these initiatives credibility is that they appear to have the support of Suu Kyi as well as her National League of Democracy (NLD), which won the abrogated 1990 elections.

Indeed, NLD has since announced that it will register as a political party and contest in upcoming by-elections.

A "Myanmar Spring"?

There's every reason to be sceptical: Myanmar has tried to open up in the past, only to see a sharp conservative reaction.

While the reforms are undoubtedly welcome, a lot more needs to be done before the country is truly re-integrated into the international community.

So what's next for Myanmar?

Personally, I can think of no better introduction to its history and possible future than my friend Thant Myint-U's two books.

Grandson of the celebrated UN secretary-general U Thant, Myint-U in 2007 published The River of Lost Footsteps: A Personal History of Burma, followed by this year's Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia.

In The River of Lost Footsteps, Myint-U weaves Myanmar's glorious but tragic history into his family narrative.

It chronicles the many conflicts between the nation's ethnic groups as well as attempts by foreign powers to impose order.

It's hardly a cheerful read, but one is treated to the stoicism of Myanmar's heroes, including independence hero Aung San and his daughter Syu Kyi, the colourful post-colonial Prime Minister U Nu as well as U Thant.

Myint-U was fortunate enough to know or interview many of his subjects personally and indeed the book's strength is its intimate feel.

Where China Meets India is a more geopolitical analysis.

It traces China and India's long history in Myanmar, particularly via bordering regions like China's Yunnan province or India's restive northeast.

Myint-U argues that Myanmar will be the site of the world's next "great game", as China and India battle for influence and natural resources in Southeast Asia.

This is persuasive in light of the ongoing US$ 2.5bil (RM7.99bil), 2,380km-long Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline that will link the port of Sittwe to Yunnan's Kunming.

China hopes this pipeline will reduce its dependency on oil shipped through the Malacca Straits, which it fears India may be able to cut off with its burgeoning navy.

A recurring theme in Myint-U's two books is that foreign nations cannot keep on isolating Myanmar, as its rulers have often simply turned their backs on the world.

Indeed, the country's current social policy may be conditional on the international community continuing to reward the regime for its good behaviour.

So while it's probably wise to welcome the latest developments, the patient engagement of Myanmar ought to continue.

However, a free and open Myanmar – with a population of 47 million, natural resources and strategic location – will be a strong rival for investment and influence.

The "Myanmar Spring" may well herald a new rivalry between mainland and maritime Southeast Asia.

Finally, we Malaysians must ask ourselves: "Do we wish to fall behind Asean's perennial human-rights laggard?"

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